Equity-sleeve coverage88.3%88.2% covered of 99.9% retained equity weight.
Total-fund coverage88.2%Company fundamentals as a share of 100.0% reported fund weight; no reallocation.
Non-company exposure0.1%Cash, derivatives, and other non-equity rows are excluded · tradingview_etf_holdings · Jul 20, 2026 · current.
Partial mapped company sleeve54/54 mapped companies have stored fundamentals, covering 88.3% of the retained company sleeve and 88.2% of fund weight. The remaining 0.1% is non-company exposure, not missing companies. Separately, 6 equity holdings (11.7% of fund weight) remain unmapped.
Risk+5.89%Estimated dispersion around the expected path.Confidence74Actionable research tiltAttractiveness21Risk-adjusted expected return after penalties.Coverage100%54 of 54 companies covered.Model versioncompany_ex_ante_v2cap-weighted selected-universe proxy from stored daily price bars
Horizon map
Expected return and uncertainty by forecast window
1W · 1M · 3M · 6M · 1Y
1W-2.78%
short · 10% positive probabilityForecast insight1W forecast readCentral estimate -2.78% with uncertainty from -5.43% to -0.13%.Uncertainty band: low -5.43%, base -2.78%, high -0.13%.Attractiveness is 23, confidence is 74 and positive-return probability is 10%.Calibration sample 0 · status proxy.This combines market tape, macro regime, factor pricing, earnings cycle, residual company alpha, and risk controls. It is an ex-ante research estimate, not a target price.
Risk
+2.95%
Confidence
74
1M-5.85%
short · 8% positive probabilityForecast insight1M forecast readCentral estimate -5.85% with uncertainty from -11.15% to -0.55%.Uncertainty band: low -11.15%, base -5.85%, high -0.55%.Attractiveness is 21, confidence is 74 and positive-return probability is 8%.Calibration sample 0 · status proxy.This combines market tape, macro regime, factor pricing, earnings cycle, residual company alpha, and risk controls. It is an ex-ante research estimate, not a target price.
Risk
+5.89%
Confidence
74
3M-11.30%
short · 5% positive probabilityForecast insight3M forecast readCentral estimate -11.30% with uncertainty from -20.69% to -1.91%.Uncertainty band: low -20.69%, base -11.30%, high -1.91%.Attractiveness is 18, confidence is 74 and positive-return probability is 5%.Calibration sample 0 · status proxy.This combines market tape, macro regime, factor pricing, earnings cycle, residual company alpha, and risk controls. It is an ex-ante research estimate, not a target price.
Risk
+10.43%
Confidence
74
6M-14.80%
short · 9% positive probabilityForecast insight6M forecast readCentral estimate -14.80% with uncertainty from -28.61% to -0.99%.Uncertainty band: low -28.61%, base -14.80%, high -0.99%.Attractiveness is 22, confidence is 74 and positive-return probability is 9%.Calibration sample 0 · status proxy.This combines market tape, macro regime, factor pricing, earnings cycle, residual company alpha, and risk controls. It is an ex-ante research estimate, not a target price.
Risk
+15.34%
Confidence
74
1Y+3.30%
relative long · 56% positive probabilityForecast insight1Y forecast readCentral estimate +3.30% with uncertainty from -16.59% to +23.18%.Uncertainty band: low -16.59%, base +3.30%, high +23.18%.Attractiveness is 61, confidence is 74 and positive-return probability is 56%.Calibration sample 0 · status proxy.This combines market tape, macro regime, factor pricing, earnings cycle, residual company alpha, and risk controls. It is an ex-ante research estimate, not a target price.
Risk
+22.09%
Confidence
74
Historical forecast accuracy
Replay proof versus recent signal
proxy · 0 samples
Recency bias guardReplay proof is stronger than current signalFactor evidence 0 versus calibration 35. A large gap means the current forecast leans more on recent setup than replay proof.Sample count0Historical forecast checks used for the visible calibration confidence.Hit raten/aNeed replay samples before declaring a historical winner.Rank ICn/aNeed replay rank evidence.
1WCurrent signal proxy
Sample count0
Hit raten/a
Average forwardn/a
Rank ICn/a
Uses current scorecard, factor-effectiveness, and price-history proxies until score-replay calibration is available.
1MCurrent signal proxy
Sample count0
Hit raten/a
Average forwardn/a
Rank ICn/a
Uses current scorecard, factor-effectiveness, and price-history proxies until score-replay calibration is available.
3MCurrent signal proxy
Sample count0
Hit raten/a
Average forwardn/a
Rank ICn/a
Uses current scorecard, factor-effectiveness, and price-history proxies until score-replay calibration is available.
6MCurrent signal proxy
Sample count0
Hit raten/a
Average forwardn/a
Rank ICn/a
Uses current scorecard, factor-effectiveness, and price-history proxies until score-replay calibration is available.
1YCurrent signal proxy
Sample count0
Hit raten/a
Average forwardn/a
Rank ICn/a
Uses current scorecard, factor-effectiveness, and price-history proxies until score-replay calibration is available.
Driver bridge
Why the 1M horizon gets this forecast
1M selected read
Driver bridge horizon1M selected read drives the waterfall and driver cards below.
Waterfall attributionStart at 0.00% · Ending forecast -5.84%
Hover any driver row for the attribution note, score read, and contribution path behind the selected horizon.
Market beta-3.71%
+0.00% to -3.71%
Macro regime-0.06%
-3.71% to -3.77%
Country / FX-0.05%
-3.77% to -3.82%
Sector leadership breadth-0.05%
-3.82% to -3.87%
Earnings cycle+0.01%
-3.87% to -3.86%
Valuation risk premium-0.01%
-3.86% to -3.87%
Factor pricing-0.06%
-3.87% to -3.93%
Liquidity / crowding-0.05%
-3.93% to -3.98%
Idiosyncratic alpha+0.13%
-3.98% to -3.85%
Risk / hedge-1.99%
-3.85% to -5.84%
Market beta-3.71%
Attribution insight
Cap-weighted recent tape proxy for broad universe direction.
Driver card insight · Market betaCap-weighted recent tape proxy for broad universe direction.Contribution path: +0.00% to -3.71% via -3.71%.Score read: 4. Positive drivers add to the horizon forecast; negative drivers subtract from it.Methodology: Uses stored daily price bars and latest market-cap weights reweighted to companies with return coverage.Sources: price_bars, company_fundamentals.market_cap_basic · coverage 100% · observed.Invalidation: The tape driver weakens if breadth rolls over or the cap-weighted proxy diverges from equal-weight participation.
Macro regime-0.06%
Attribution insight
Macro and risk-appetite proxy from theme score, early signal, and broad tape.
Driver card insight · Macro regimeMacro and risk-appetite proxy from theme score, early signal, and broad tape.Contribution path: -3.71% to -3.77% via -0.06%.Score read: 40. Positive drivers add to the horizon forecast; negative drivers subtract from it.Methodology: Blends stored macro/theme score, early-signal score, market beta, and breadth because no single macro forecast series is decisive for every universe.Sources: company_ranking_scorecards.theme_macro_score, company_ranking_scorecards.early_signal_score, price_bars · coverage 100% · proxy.Invalidation: A liquidity shock, policy surprise, or FX shock can overwhelm company-level alignment.
Country / FX-0.05%
Attribution insight
Country and currency regime proxy for the selected universe.
Driver card insight · Country / FXCountry and currency regime proxy for the selected universe.Contribution path: -3.77% to -3.82% via -0.05%.Score read: 34. Positive drivers add to the horizon forecast; negative drivers subtract from it.Methodology: Uses universe country/currency context indirectly through stored company scorecards and the cap-weighted local tape.Sources: company_universe, company_ranking_scorecards.theme_macro_score, price_bars · coverage 100% · proxy.Invalidation: Currency translation, capital-flow reversal, or country risk repricing can change this read quickly.
Sector leadership breadth-0.05%
Attribution insight
Whether the forecast is supported by broad leadership instead of a few crowded winners.
Driver card insight · Sector leadership breadthWhether the forecast is supported by broad leadership instead of a few crowded winners.Contribution path: -3.82% to -3.87% via -0.05%.Score read: 44. Positive drivers add to the horizon forecast; negative drivers subtract from it.Methodology: Blends relative leadership, momentum, breakout, and early-signal scorecards across the selected universe.Sources: company_ranking_scorecards.relative_leadership_score, company_ranking_scorecards.momentum_score, company_ranking_scorecards.breakout_score · coverage 100% · observed.Invalidation: A narrow rally with falling participation should reduce this driver even if index return remains positive.
Earnings cycle+0.01%
Attribution insight
Near-term fundamental acceleration and catalyst confirmation across stored company data.
Driver card insight · Earnings cycleNear-term fundamental acceleration and catalyst confirmation across stored company data.Contribution path: -3.87% to -3.86% via +0.01%.Score read: 51. Positive drivers add to the horizon forecast; negative drivers subtract from it.Methodology: Blends fundamental acceleration, quality, catalyst evidence, and early-signal scorecards to approximate earnings-cycle support.Sources: company_fundamental_snapshots, unstructured_signals, company_ranking_scorecards.fundamental_acceleration_score · coverage 100% · observed.Invalidation: Upcoming results can invalidate this if revenue, margin, or guidance inflects against the stored trend.
Valuation risk premium-0.01%
Attribution insight
Cheapness, quality support, and risk-adjusted valuation setup.
Driver card insight · Valuation risk premiumCheapness, quality support, and risk-adjusted valuation setup.Contribution path: -3.86% to -3.87% via -0.01%.Score read: 49. Positive drivers add to the horizon forecast; negative drivers subtract from it.Methodology: Blends valuation score, quality, risk score, and factor-effectiveness evidence for value/growth style compensation.Sources: company_fundamentals, company_ranking_scorecards.valuation_score, factor_effectiveness_summaries · coverage 100% · observed.Invalidation: Multiple compression or earnings-estimate cuts can erase apparent valuation support.
Factor pricing-0.06%
Attribution insight
Rewarded factor mix calibrated against stored factor summaries.
Driver card insight · Factor pricingRewarded factor mix calibrated against stored factor summaries.Contribution path: -3.87% to -3.93% via -0.06%.Score read: 45. Positive drivers add to the horizon forecast; negative drivers subtract from it.Methodology: Uses current valuation, quality, momentum, leadership, theme, and acceleration loadings multiplied by stored company factor-effectiveness spreads where available.Sources: factor_effectiveness_summaries, company_ranking_scorecards, company_factor_exposures · coverage 100% · proxy.Invalidation: If high-minus-low factor spreads stop paying, this driver should be discounted regardless of scorecard exposure.
Liquidity / crowding-0.05%
Attribution insight
Concentration, crowded ownership proxy, and volume-confirmation adjustment.
Driver card insight · Liquidity / crowdingConcentration, crowded ownership proxy, and volume-confirmation adjustment.Contribution path: -3.93% to -3.98% via -0.05%.Score read: 87. Positive drivers add to the horizon forecast; negative drivers subtract from it.Methodology: Penalizes top-name concentration and adds a small offset when stored volume confirms the move.Sources: company_fundamentals.market_cap_basic, price_bars.volume_ratio_20d · coverage 100% · proxy.Invalidation: Crowded unwind risk rises if the same top names carry most of the universe return.
Idiosyncratic alpha+0.13%
Attribution insight
Aggregated company-level score edge after common drivers.
Driver card insight · Idiosyncratic alphaAggregated company-level score edge after common drivers.Contribution path: -3.98% to -3.85% via +0.13%.Score read: 53. Positive drivers add to the horizon forecast; negative drivers subtract from it.Methodology: Uses the horizon-specific company score blend and measures aggregate score edge versus a neutral 50 score.Sources: company_ranking_scorecards, unstructured_signals, company_fundamental_snapshots · coverage 100% · observed.Invalidation: This fades if current leaders lose momentum, catalysts fail, or fundamentals stop improving.
Risk / hedge-1.99%
Attribution insight
Drawdown, balance-sheet, liquidity, and data-coverage drag.
Driver card insight · Risk / hedgeDrawdown, balance-sheet, liquidity, and data-coverage drag.Contribution path: -3.85% to -5.84% via -1.99%.Score read: 50. Positive drivers add to the horizon forecast; negative drivers subtract from it.Methodology: Subtracts expected return for weak risk scores, current drawdown pressure, concentration, and incomplete coverage.Sources: company_ranking_scorecards.risk_score, price_bars, company_fundamentals.debt_to_equity · coverage 100% · observed.Invalidation: Hedge penalty should increase if drawdowns deepen, leverage risk rises, or volatility widens.
Risk and calibration
What can make the forecast wrong
proxy
Volatility+5.89%
Downside risk+3.24%
Drawdown-38.81%
Concentration13
Confidence components
Data quality100
Calibration35
Factor evidencen/a
Breadth44
Risk control50
Calibration
1W10% hit rate-2.78% average forward returnCalibration sample 0 · rank IC n/a1M8% hit rate-5.85% average forward returnCalibration sample 0 · rank IC n/a3M5% hit rate-11.30% average forward returnCalibration sample 0 · rank IC n/a6M9% hit rate-14.80% average forward returnCalibration sample 0 · rank IC n/a1Y56% hit rate+3.30% average forward returnCalibration sample 0 · rank IC n/a
Forecast is model-implied from stored company signals, score replay, factor evidence, and price history. It is not a target price or recommendation.
No score-replay calibration is available for this selected universe and horizon set, so forecast calibration is proxy-based.
No company factor-effectiveness summaries are available for this universe, so factor pricing uses current scorecard proxies.
Idiosyncratic longs
High-potential names after common drivers
TSX:DPMDPM Metals Inc.
Expected
+1.94%
Residual
+1.66%
Confidence
100
Metals / mining resources
TSX:WDOWesdome Gold Mines Ltd.
Expected
+1.81%
Residual
+1.53%
Confidence
100
Metals / mining resources
TSX:ABXBarrick Mining Corporation
Expected
+1.80%
Residual
+1.52%
Confidence
100
ABX: Q1 saw gold output above guidance, doubled EBITDA, and a $3B buyback, with IPO progress on track
NYSE:NEMNewmont Corporation
Expected
+1.69%
Residual
+1.41%
Confidence
100
Metals / mining resources
ASX:VAUVault Minerals Limited
Expected
+1.62%
Residual
+1.34%
Confidence
100
The company is expensive versus the selected universe on available valuation anchors.
ASX:CMMCapricorn Metals Ltd
Expected
+1.41%
Residual
+1.13%
Confidence
100
Capricorn Metals Initiated at Buy by UBS
Short / hedge candidates
Negative alpha, hedge, or avoid lanes
TSX:OLAOrla Mining Ltd.
Expected
-2.00%
Residual
-2.28%
Confidence
100
Metals / mining resources plus improving tape lifts the score above the slower base read.
AMEX:EQXEquinox Gold Corp.
Expected
-1.62%
Residual
-1.90%
Confidence
100
Metals / mining resources
HKEX:1818Zhaojin Mining Industry Co., Ltd. Class H
Expected
-1.51%
Residual
-1.79%
Confidence
100
Metals / mining resources plus improving tape lifts the score above the slower base read.
LSE:HOCHochschild Mining plc
Expected
-1.46%
Residual
-1.74%
Confidence
100
Metals / mining resources plus improving tape lifts the score above the slower base read.
HKEX:2259Zijin Gold International Company Limited
Expected
-1.33%
Residual
-1.61%
Confidence
90
Metals / mining resources plus improving tape lifts the score above the slower base read.
NYSE:AGIAlamos Gold Inc.
Expected
-1.24%
Residual
-1.52%
Confidence
100
Metals / mining resources
Relative pairs
Long strongest residual score versus weakest score
TSX:DPM / TSX:OLA+3.94% spreadPair strongest residual score against weakest residual score inside the same selected universe.TSX:WDO / AMEX:EQX+3.44% spreadPair strongest residual score against weakest residual score inside the same selected universe.TSX:ABX / HKEX:1818+3.31% spreadPair strongest residual score against weakest residual score inside the same selected universe.