Opening ETF flow intelligenceLoading persisted fund-flow, AUM, shares, and source evidence

SOXL · observable flow signature

No dominant motive signature

Observed pattern, not identified investor intent. The exact signature does not have enough independent historical outcomes.

readyresearch onlywatch onlyreconstructed current provider history · collected live

Invalidation: State weakens if flow/AUM crosses zero, the completed-close price response changes sign, or the 21-session median-lift interval includes zero.

Selected ETF

Visible history

Measured 21-session state+15.342%inflow against price weakness · accelerating

Mechanism capacityresearch proxy0.3× 20-session ADV · scale proxy, not price impact

21-session forward association-0.06%direction-aligned · hit +46.7% · n=15

Evidence gateindeterminate2 source families · top-two margin 1.0 points

Observable evidence, not identified intent

Flow/price path across 1M–5Y horizons

ready5/5 matched horizon dots + 1M diagnostic rule points

X-axis: completed-close price return across each dot's matching trailing window. Left = price fell; right = price rose.Y-axis: net provider flow across that horizon's reported observations divided by aligned end-window AUM. Below zero = net outflow; above zero = net inflow.Horizon trail: SOXL has 5/5 matched horizon dots through Jul 17, 2026, extending to 5Y. Each dot uses flow/AUM and completed-close price return from the same trailing window; the horizons are nested, so this is co-movement, not causality or five independent samples.

1M21/21 observations+15.342% flow / AUM-48.98% price · Jun 19, 2026 – Jul 17, 2026

3M63/63 observations-8.500% flow / AUM+45.25% price · Apr 22, 2026 – Jul 17, 2026

1Y252/252 observations-100.312% flow / AUM+416.04% price · Jul 31, 2025 – Jul 17, 2026

3Y756/756 observations-111.021% flow / AUM+598.09% price · Aug 25, 2023 – Jul 17, 2026

5Y1260/1260 observations-85.977% flow / AUM+204.77% price · Sep 20, 2021 – Jul 17, 2026

Reconstructing cutoff-safe flow horizonsCalibrating axes, series, and evidence layers

Horizon line: links nested trailing windows through one endpoint; it is not a time path or five independent observations.1M rule-score bars: positive points support a hypothesis; negative points contradict it. Rule points count supporting observable conditions; they are not probabilities.Creation-linked accommodation has the highest rule score at 3.0 points, but the full evidence gate is not passed; no motive is selected.Scale comparison: the absolute 21-observation flow notional is 26.5% of 20-session average daily traded value—about 0.27 average trading days. This is not a one-day trade or a causal price-impact estimate.Evidence cutoff: Jul 17, 2026

Alternative hypotheses

What the same observables cannot distinguish

Available co-movement features cannot separate the plausible explanations.

Possible explanation	Rule points	Supporting / pushback evidence	Evidence boundary
Creation-linked accommodationclosest observable match	3.0points, not probability	+1.0 reported flow direction · +1.0 completed price context · +1.0 shares outstanding direction	Intent indeterminateactual intent is not identified and no orthogonal discriminator is available
Contrarian allocationalternative explanation	2.0points, not probability	Shared observable pattern; detailed contribution matrix shown for closest match.	Intent indeterminateactual intent is not identified and no orthogonal discriminator is available
Rebalancing into weaknessalternative explanation	2.0points, not probability	Shared observable pattern; detailed contribution matrix shown for closest match.	Intent indeterminateactual intent is not identified and no orthogonal discriminator is available

Raw formation · daily provider flow, cumulative history, and source audit

Selected provider proxy

SOXL daily and cumulative flow

ready252/252 sessions · Jul 17, 2026

Rendering persisted flow historyCalibrating axes, series, and evidence layers

Signed bars: daily FUND_FLOWS_DLine: cumulative from zero over the visible rangeUnit: uncertified provider monetary units