Opening ETF flow intelligenceLoading persisted fund-flow, AUM, shares, and source evidence

2837 · observable flow signature

No dominant motive signature

Observed pattern, not identified investor intent. The exact signature does not have enough independent historical outcomes.

readyresearch onlywatch onlyreconstructed current provider history · collected live

Invalidation: State weakens if flow/AUM crosses zero, the completed-close price response changes sign, or the 21-session median-lift interval includes zero.

Selected ETF

Visible history

Measured 21-session state-0.289%outflow with price weakness · high attention episode

Mechanism capacityresearch proxy0.5× 20-session ADV · scale proxy, not price impact

21-session forward association-2.10%direction-aligned · hit +18.2% · n=11

Evidence gateindeterminate2 source families · top-two margin 0.0 points

Observable evidence, not identified intent

Flow/price path across 1M–5Y horizons

partial4/5 matched horizon dots + 1M diagnostic rule points

X-axis: completed-close price return across each dot's matching trailing window. Left = price fell; right = price rose.Y-axis: net provider flow across that horizon's reported observations divided by aligned end-window AUM. Below zero = net outflow; above zero = net inflow.Horizon trail: 2837 has 4/5 matched horizon dots through Jul 17, 2026, extending to 3Y. Each dot uses flow/AUM and completed-close price return from the same trailing window; the horizons are nested, so this is co-movement, not causality or five independent samples. Unavailable: 5Y.

1M21/21 observations-0.289% flow / AUM-17.60% price · Jun 19, 2026 – Jul 17, 2026

3M63/63 observations-0.091% flow / AUM+35.08% price · Apr 22, 2026 – Jul 17, 2026

1Y252/252 observations+25.239% flow / AUM+91.70% price · Jul 31, 2025 – Jul 17, 2026

3Y756/756 observations+50.785% flow / AUM+137.16% price · Aug 25, 2023 – Jul 17, 2026

5Y1260/1260 observationsunavailableprice endpoint missing

Reconstructing cutoff-safe flow horizonsCalibrating axes, series, and evidence layers

Horizon line: links nested trailing windows through one endpoint; it is not a time path or five independent observations.1M rule-score bars: positive points support a hypothesis; negative points contradict it. Rule points count supporting observable conditions; they are not probabilities.3 hypotheses tie at 2.0 points; the 0.0-point top-two margin misses the 2.0-point dominance gate, so no motive is selected.Scale comparison: the absolute 21-observation flow notional is 46.3% of 20-session average daily traded value—about 0.46 average trading days. This is not a one-day trade or a causal price-impact estimate.Evidence cutoff: Jul 17, 2026

Alternative hypotheses

What the same observables cannot distinguish

Available co-movement features cannot separate the plausible explanations.

Possible explanation	Rule points	Supporting / pushback evidence	Evidence boundary
Allocation withdrawalclosest observable match	2.0points, not probability	+1.0 reported flow direction · +1.0 completed price context	Intent indeterminateactual intent is not identified and no orthogonal discriminator is available
De-riskingalternative explanation	2.0points, not probability	Shared observable pattern; detailed contribution matrix shown for closest match.	Intent indeterminateactual intent is not identified and no orthogonal discriminator is available
Redemption pressurealternative explanation	2.0points, not probability	Shared observable pattern; detailed contribution matrix shown for closest match.	Intent indeterminateactual intent is not identified and no orthogonal discriminator is available

Raw formation · daily provider flow, cumulative history, and source audit

Selected provider proxy

2837 daily and cumulative flow

ready252/252 sessions · Jul 17, 2026

Rendering persisted flow historyCalibrating axes, series, and evidence layers

Signed bars: daily FUND_FLOWS_DLine: cumulative from zero over the visible rangeUnit: uncertified provider monetary units